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The soybean market closed the second straight session of the week higher on the Chicago Stock Exchange, reflecting improving fundamental and financial scenarios, up more than 2% throughout the day, ending Tuesday (28) in the positive domain, with increases of 25.50 to 36.75 points on the main maturities. Thus, the month of August ends the day at 15.55 US$ and the month of November – which is the most traded at the moment – at 14.61 US$ per bushel.

On the side of derivatives, the increases were also strong and exceeded 1%, both for oil and for soybean meal. Corn and wheat also increased. Tuesday (28) is a broad high for commodities, and some of the support comes from oil gains. Gains in WTI alone were more than 2%, taking the barrel above US$111.00.

On the one hand, the fundamentals and monitoring of the climate and the evolution of North American culture. Yesterday, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) again reduced the quality of soybean, corn and wheat crops in the country. At the other end, climate maps are signaling better conditions for the Corn Belt in the coming days.

“Corn and soybean futures are supported by declining growing conditions. Crops have felt the warm temperatures. And models show more heat and more rain for the next 10 days,” the report says. market analyst Eduardo Vanin, of Agrinvest Commodities.

Updated maps from NOAA, the official US weather service, show the next 6-10 days – July 4-8 – will see above-average rainfall and temperatures, as seen in the images following.

WhatsApp Picture 2022-06-28 at 11.16.00
Rain forecast for July 4 to 8 – Map: NOAA
WhatsApp Picture 2022-06-28 at 10.16.34
Temperature forecast for July 4-8 – Map: NOAA

For market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze, of Brandalizze Consulting, the price range that should be practiced for new US crop contracts should be US$14.50 to US$15.50 per bushel. “If in advance it manages to exceed 15.00 US$, it will already be interesting for the producer, because the month of August is the peak of the counter-season, it is the end of the American crop cycle. So normally it has a lot better value than the upcoming November position,” he explains.

Also according to Vanin, the good news from China is also contributing to the rise in prices, in particular the improvement in crushing and pork production margins.

“China’s margins have improved. Dalian Stock Exchange surged for bran and oil futures, and live hogs continue to climb strongly. China has covered its soybean needs well for the window from July to the end of October”, he detailed.

In addition to this scenario, the Chicago grain futures market is also gearing up to receive the new quarterly acreage bulletin and quarterly U.S. grain stocks bulletin on June 1.

BRAZILIAN MARKET

The consultant Brandalizze also recalls that the current moment is decisive and also important for the formation of input prices and production costs by Brazilian producers, especially with the high of the dollar against the real.

“People in the countryside have already pointed out to me that fertilizers have gone up, and that the exchange rate may tighten in the future. So, we must not stop at the last minute. We have the advantage of being served by Russia at the same time that they serve few countries and other sides,” he explains.

Soybean price formation here in the domestic market remains more limited, however, finding room for a break this week with highs not only in Chicago, but also in the dollar against the real.

“Today the port market has improved compared to yesterday. R$ 194.00 in July, R$ 195.00 at the end of July / beginning of August, R$ 196.00 for August with September and R$ 197, 00 for September And this delivery operation now, payment in January, worked well, is able to pay the R$ 200.00 and this is the best position we currently have in the ports”, says the consultant.

Also according to Brandalizze, inland SKUs improved by R$1.00 to R$2.00 per bag, and could improve a little more this Wednesday.

And little by little, business is picking up again, especially new soybean sales from the new crop, which have been more contained in recent weeks, with price chances ranging from R$183.00 to R$185.00 per bag at the ports.

“The grower needs to start watching this because when the port hits R$190.00, if they get the chance, they are already good positions to at least average. For now, the US climate n It’s not as favorable as if, he explained, but if it rains in the next few days, the whole situation changes. There are three weeks of falling quality. If it rains, the market begins to balance. crop situation and returns the points he has earned,” says The Specialist.


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