A quick recap

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The Opec group of oil producers has defied pressure to significantly increase oil production.

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Despite president Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia last month, the cartel only agreed to increase output by 100,000 barrels per day in September.

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It’s one of the smallest increases in its history, equivalent to around a minute-and-a-half of daily demand.

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Analysts said the move was a rebuff to Western pressure… although also pointed out that some Opec members were struggling to meet existing production goals anyway.

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Randeep Somel, manager of the M&G Climate Solutions Fund, says Joe Biden’s fist bump with Mohammed bin Salman has only delivered a “miniscule OPEC+ production increase”.

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Somel adds:

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“It doesn’t look as if higher oil prices are going to be resolved by a supply response. The key factor now will be how resilient the global economy can be with higher oil prices and if inflation can be tamed despite energy prices remaining high.

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Otherwise the only option central banks will have is to raise interest rates in order to curtail demand.”

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Tight energy markets will continue to squeeze households, with a warning today that UK consumer price inflation could hit 15% early next year.

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Rising prices and weakening growth leaves the UK at risk of stagflation, the NIESR thinktank warned this morning.

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It predicts the UK will enter a recession this quarter – which will last until the first quarter of 2023 — pushing up unemployment, and widening economic inequality within the country.

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The government is facing growing calls to provide more support for struggling households.

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Charities warned that renters whose utility bills are included in their rent are at the mercy of their landlords and could miss out on the UK government’s existing £400 energy discount.

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Drivers are still being squeezed too, with a warning that large petrol retailers were too slow to pass on falling wholesale petrol prices.

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French energy provided EDF is also strugging in the hot weather, warning that it may need to turn down nuclear output as river temperatures rise, making it harder to cool reactors.

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Elsewhere today….

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The global management consultancy Bain & Company has been barred from tendering for UK government contracts for three years after its “grave professional misconduct” in state corruption in South Africa, the Cabinet Office said.

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The chief executive of Tinder has left the dating app after less than a year after the market value of its parent company plunged by more than a fifth following reporting disappointing results.

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Adverts for two funeral providers have been banned after they misleadingly implied that their MDF coffins were more eco-friendly than other options.

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Shell is handing the vast majority of its more than 80,000 staff around the world a bonus equivalent to 8% of their annual salary, after the oil company’s profits surged to a record.

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The UK firm said:

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“In recognition of the contribution our people have made to Shell’s strong operational performance against a recent challenging backdrop, our executive committee has decided to make a special recognition award of 8% of salary to all eligible staff across the world.

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“The award enables those employees to share in our current operational and financial success – it is not a response to inflation or cost-of-living challenges.”

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The one-off payment will be made to most of Shell’s 82,000 employees. Only those on its executive committee, along with its executive vice presidents, and contractors are excluded.

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Last week, the FTSE 100 company reported a record profit, of $11.5bn, for the second quarter in a row on the back of soaring oil and gas prices, and strong refining profit margins.

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Those profits were described as an insult to millions of strugging households, as soaring energy bills are pushing inflation to the highest level in decades.

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Resolution’s Jack Leslie has written a handy explanation of why soaring wholesale gas prices will drive UK inflation to such painful levels in 2023.

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The key factor is that the price of the futures contract for natural gas in the coming winter has risen to record levels, following the recent reduction in supply of gas to Germany from Russia.

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Although these markets are sometimes thinly traded and so prices can be volatile, it is clear that current expectations for gas prices this winter are more than twice what they were prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and higher than the peak in March 2022.

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All of this has pushed forecasts for the energy price cap in October to £3,358 and then £3,615 in January 2023 (substantially higher than when Ofgem wrote to the Chancellor in May with the expectation that the price cap would be £2,800 come the autumn).

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High gas prices also push up electricity prices, with both leading to increased costs for businesses as well as consumers – costs which are ultimately passed through, meaning families will have to cope with higher and more persistent consumer price inflation.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746388914835458″,”id”:”1554746388914835458″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”a83380cb-b081-43c2-ba11-5ed7e547af51″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746396208685057″,”id”:”1554746396208685057″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e8c079d7-3d79-43ab-9dc4-38d1b4fa38be”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746404073095169″,”id”:”1554746404073095169″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e378ab03-f8ce-416d-b42d-1795ecc024d7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746413095047168″,”id”:”1554746413095047168″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2bce007c-70e9-43ff-8029-2d8e796ef3b6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746415624208388″,”id”:”1554746415624208388″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”ccc0e646-65fa-4973-9228-c30e94cf7005″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659538162000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.49 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659538350000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.52 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659538350000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.52 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.52″,”title”:”Why UK inflation might hit 15% subsequent yr”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea874b8f0892e28b4ab159″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Britons have been warned that inflation could hit 15% next year.

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In a new report, Resolution Foundation warned that prices could continue to accelerate, and that soaring gas prices will prompt the Bank of England into its biggest interest rate rise since 1995 tomorrow.

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UK inflation is already nearing double-digits, even before energy bills jump in October and January, as seems inevitable.

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Resolution say the jump in gas prices will drive inflation even higher than feared, even though other commodity prices have eased off.

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Contrary to many reports, there have been some recent encouraging signs for lower inflation: a range of key imported commodity prices have fallen materially – by up to 61 per cent – since their peaks earlier in the year, reducing global inflationary pressures.

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But these positive trends have likely been more than offset by a deterioration in the outlook for gas prices, with the energy price cap now expected to top £3,600 early in 2023.

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This means that consumer price inflation will now peak higher and later than the Bank of England previously thought, with CPI inflation plausibly moving above 15 per cent next year (without Government measures to reduce prices).

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1554770638597922816″,”id”:”1554770638597922816″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”b654768c-e769-438c-97ae-9dc99ba5b388″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659537227000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.33 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659537541000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659537541000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.39″,”title”:”Decision: put together for 15% inflation in early 2023.”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea6c908f0878ca99e20491″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The OPEC+ plan to raise oil output by a tiny 100,000 barrels per day is being described as ‘almost insulting’ to U.S. President Joe Biden after his trip to Saudi Arabia last month to persuade OPEC’s leader to pump more to help the U.S. and global economy, says Reuters.

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The increase, equivalent to 86 seconds of global oil demand, comes after weeks of speculation that Biden’s trip to the Middle East and Washington’s clearance of missile defence system sales to Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates will bring in more oil.

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An OPEC+ document showed the group was set to raise output by 100,000 bpd from September and two sources said it has been effectively rubber-stamped by a close-door meeting.

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“That is so little as to be meaningless. From a physical standpoint it is a marginal blip. As a political gesture it is almost insulting,” said Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy, climate, and sustainability at Eurasia Group.

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OPEC and its allies led by Russia have been previously increasing production by about 430,000-650,000 bpd a month although they have struggled to meet full targets as most members have already exhausted their output potential.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/AlexLawler100/status/1554809226052214786″,”id”:”1554809226052214786″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”cfd2e89f-eafc-4854-a4a1-f5a969048ded”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

More here: OPEC+ set to approve minuscule oil output rise in rebuff to Biden

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OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to raise its September oil output targets by 100,000 barrels per day, dashing hopes of a larger increase.

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The decision, at today’s meeting of oil ministers, should bring some more supplies onto the market…but it’s a much slower pace than in earlier months.

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For both July and August, for example, the group had pledged to raise output by 600,000 barrels, having added an extra 400k per month at earlier meetings.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1554807700202131456″,”id”:”1554807700202131456″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”1c2655dc-e456-4f77-b459-67893d876274″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The US has been pushing Opec to boost output, but President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia last month did not yield an agreement.

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However, some Opec+ members had already been struggling to deliver previous output targets, having exhausted their spare production.

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Here’s Bloomberg’s take:

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The 23-nation alliance would divide the increase proportionally between members, delegates said. In recent months, with only the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates able to bolster production, just a fraction of the group’s promised increases have reached world markets. There were no discussions about whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies would keep increasing production beyond September, they said.

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The agreement is only a modest indication that Riyadh and Washington are on a path toward reconciliation, coming after a visit to the kingdom last month that saw US President Joe Biden greet Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman with a fist bump. Late on Tuesday, the US approved the sale of $3.05 billion of weapons including Patriot missiles to the Middle East heavyweight.

n

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In different vitality information… German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted that Russia had no motive to carry up the return of a fuel turbine for the Nord Stream 1 fuel pipeline.

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The turbine is stranded in Germany, following servicing in Canada, in an escalating standoff that has seen has flows to Europe fall to a trickle, simply 20% of capability.

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Standing subsequent to the turbine on a manufacturing unit go to to Siemens Power in Muelheim an der Ruhr, Scholz stated it was totally operational and could possibly be shipped again to Russia at any time – offered Moscow was keen to take it again.

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“The turbine works,” Scholz stated, telling reporters:.

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“It’s fairly clear and easy: the turbine is there and may be delivered, however somebody must say ‘I need to have it’”.

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However Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed a scarcity of documentation for holding up the turbine’s return to Russia.

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Chancellor Olaf Scholz insists fuel turbine at centre of row with Russia works”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea57518f08b58de97ebc24″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Senior Labour MPs have written to the chief executive of BT, urging him to intervene in a pay dispute which has sparked strikes by thousands of workers.

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The party’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, and shadow digital, media and sport secretary Lucy Powell urged Philip Jansen to enter into negotiations with the Communication Workers Union (CWU).

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They said he should follow the lead of other chief executives and “take your place at the negotiating table to find a fair deal”.

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CWU members at BT and Openreach have staged two 24-hour strikes in recent days in protest at a 1,500 pay increase which the union described as a real-terms wage cut because of the soaring rate of inflation.

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BT, though, is unwilling to restart pay talks – Jansen said last week that the £1,500 pay deal offered to frontline staff was “history” and not open for negotiation.

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A BT Group spokesman said:

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n

“At the start of this year, we were in exhaustive discussions with the CWU that lasted for two months, trying hard to reach an agreement on pay.

n

“When it became clear that we were not going to reach an accord, we took the decision to go ahead with awarding our frontline colleagues the highest pay award in more than 20 years, representing a pay rise of around 5% on average and 8% for the lowest paid.

n

“We have been in constant dialogue with the CWU and we have reaffirmed our willingness to discuss how we move forward from here but it would be inappropriate to reopen negotiations on a pay award that we implemented in April, when it was due.”

n

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The summer of industrial unrest has caused tensions within Labour, over leader Keir Starmer’s policy that frontbenchers should not join on picket lines.

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Rayner and Powell met union officials in a Zoom meeting on Monday, but shadow levelling up minister Lisa Nandy did visit striking BT workers on Monday, to show supporr for constituents campaigning for better pay and conditions.

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British services sector activity growth has slowed to its slowest pace since early 2021, during a Covid-19 lockdown.

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Outpur growth hit a 17-month low in July, as the economy was hit by the highest inflation in 40 years. Order books remained subdued, and confidence about the future remained at an historically subdued level.

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But there were also signs that inflationary pressures could be easing a little, as input cost inflation softened to its lowest since December 2021.

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This pulled S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index down to 52.6, down from 54.3 in June — and weaker than the ‘flash’ reading taken in mid-July.

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Tim Moore, S&P World Market Intelligence’s economics director, stated.

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n

“UK service suppliers reported their worst month for enterprise exercise enlargement because the nationwide lockdown in February 2021.

n

Lowered ranges of discretionary client spending and efforts by companies to include bills because of escalating inflation have mixed to squeeze demand throughout the service economic system.

n

The near-term outlook additionally appears subdued, as new order development held near June’s 16-month low and enterprise optimism was the second weakest since Could 2020.

n

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The eurozone private sector shrank last month for the first time since Febuary 2021, as manufacturing output declined and the service sector slowed.

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Companies across both sector blamed the damaging impact that high inflation was having on output levels, with businesses hit by a fall in new orders and growing economic uncertainty.

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The latest survey of eurozone purchasing managers, from S&P Global, found that the manufacturing sector was a significant drag on the euro area economy during July as production volumes fell at the fastest rate since May 2020.

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Services activity continued to rise overall, but growth slowed to its weakest since the Omicron-related disruption at the start of the year.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/SPGlobalPMI/status/1554741476248133632″,”id”:”1554741476248133632″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”37e0a066-900a-4679-a53c-55679d8cc244″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659514598000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.16 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659515277000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659515277000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.27″,”title”:”Eurozone ‘slips into contraction’ as inflation hits economic system”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 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Taylor Wimpey, one in every of Britain’s greatest housebuilders, is handing a lot of its workers a cost of as much as £1,000 to assist them with hovering dwelling prices.

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Workers on annual salaries of as much as £70,000 will qualify for the cost, to assist them deal with rising inflation and the anticipated improve in gas payments this winter, my colleague Julie Kollewe stories.

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Different corporations have additionally been giving employees one-off funds to assist; HSBC agreed a £1,500 cost for lower-paid employees earlier this week.

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Taylor Wimpey’s transfer got here after a stable set of first-half outcomes with revenues of £2.1bn, down 5.4% from final yr, and a revenue earlier than tax of £334.5m, up 16.3%. Excluding joint ventures, the corporate accomplished on 6,790 properties, down from 7,303 final yr however forward of its expectations.

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The group, run by Jennie Daly, now expects full yr working revenue towards the highest finish of £873-£924m. That’s pushed by sturdy common promoting costs which are anticipated to be 4%-5% increased than final yr, totally offsetting 9%-10% construct price inflation.

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Taylor Wimpey shares have risen 2.3% on the information.

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Matt Britzman, fairness analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated:

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n

“This was an excellent set of numbers in opposition to the backdrop of file efficiency final yr.

n

There’s nonetheless a structural provide/demand imbalance within the UK propping up costs regardless of client spending energy falling. The ahead order guide appears sturdy and Taylor Wimpey’s doubling down on efforts to take full benefit, opening the test guide to push extra retailers and being new land plots into the fold.

n

Price inflation stays a thorn, working round 9-10% however totally offset by increased costs for now. It stays to be seen how lengthy that may proceed, however whereas it does shareholders can proceed to count on stable returns.”

n

“,”elementId”:”71f4dbca-1941-4e9d-bb19-33fcb08b713f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659511128000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.18 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659513787000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.03 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659513758000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.02 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.02″,”title”:”Taylor Wimpey employees to get £1,000 to assist with price of dwelling squeeze”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Julia Kollewe”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/contributor/2014/10/15/1413385261859/Julia-Kollewe.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1fd976c7e16b5325a5b81f24809000f7″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julia-Kollewe,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=23f212ea863acfa1e5744c02a3c246fd”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea1b328f0892e28b4aacc5″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Major retailers are moving too slowly to cut petrol prices, the RAC has warned.

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Although fuel prices did drop last month, those reductions still don’t fairly reflect the fall in the wholesale price of fuel.

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My colleague Gemma McSherry explains:

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n

Over the last eight weeks, the average price paid for unleaded by drivers across the UK has only dropped by 9p a litre – all of which came off in July – despite wholesale petrol prices falling by 20p in the same time period.

n

According to the motoring organisation, the wholesale cost of unleaded is now back to the prices reached in early May, meaning a litre should be 167p, not 183p.

n

The disparity in cost from wholesale to consumer means drivers are paying nearly £9 more on a tank of petrol than they should be, it said. A tank of diesel should be lower than the end of July average, the RAC added.

n

“,”elementId”:”9e002554-d0a9-429b-bfcc-cb329c00d0f7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/03/uk-petrol-prices-cost-rac-unleaded”,”text”:”UK petrol prices not falling in line with wholesale cost – RAC”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”c816387e-7876-42c6-9b51-a69eb95800f4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

RAC fuel spokesperson, Simon Williams, criticed the supermarket chains for not cutting prices faster last month:

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n

“July has been an unnecessarily tough month for drivers due to the big four supermarkets’ unwillingness to cut their prices to a more a reasonable level, reflecting the consistent and significant reductions in the wholesale cost of petrol and diesel.”

n

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NIESR have also slashed their global growth forecasts, and lifted their inflation forecasts, warning that the world economy also risks stagflation.

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Global GDP is only expected to rise by 2.8% this year, and again in 2023, down from 3.3% and 3.2% growth which was forecast in the spring.

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And inflation across the OECD is now seen soaring to 9.7% this year (up from 8.2% forecast previously), and only drop back to 6.3% in 2023 (up from 4.5%).

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“The world economic system is fraying on the edges”, warns Corrado Macchiarelli, NIESR’s Supervisor for World Macroeconomics Analysis:

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n

The easing of financial and monetary situations throughout Covid, persevering with disruptions to provide chains and the persevering with conflict in Ukraine have prompted us to revise world GDP development down and inflation up even additional, in comparison with our Spring Outlook.

n

Uncertainty round Russia’s provide of fuel to the Euro Space, the impact that increased coverage and market rates of interest could have on world demand, and the impression of upper gas and meals value rises on rising markets are among the many key draw back dangers to this forecast.”

n

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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The UK is heading into a period of stagflation with high inflation and a looming recession dealing a double-blow to the country as a winter of economic misery approaches.

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That’s the chilling warning from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research this morning, which fears that one in five households will be left without savings by 2024, as the cost-of-living crisis hits.

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In its latest quarterly outlook of the UK economy, NIESR warns that CPI inflation is anticipated to peak close to 11 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, when energy bills across Britain are expected to soar over £3,000 per year.

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Those soaring prices mean average real household disposable incomes would shrink by 2.5% this year, as wages fail to keep up with inflation.

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NIESR warns that vulnerable households will be worse hit. It predicts the UK will enter a recession this quarter – which will last until the first quarter of 2023 — pushing up unemployment.

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This could worsen financial inequality throughout the nation, scuppering the Levelling Up agenda.

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NIESR sees the hole between London and the remainder of the UK widening, because the West Midlands, and components of Wales and Scotland proceed to fall additional behind.

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The federal government should give extra help to assist struggling households by the disaster, insists Professor Adrian Pabst, NIESR’s Deputy Director for Public Coverage:

“,”elementId”:”4e2033e8-ba9f-46f5-a466-fa50108337c6″},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“All households are going through hovering vitality and meals payments however too many should resort to credit score, construct up cost arrears or see their financial savings worn out.

n

The incoming administration wants to supply instant emergency help to the 1.2 million hardest hit households and the one-in-five households that can develop into financially weak because the vitality value cap is lifted and the recession begins to chew.”

n

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Right here’s the complete story:

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And listed below are the important thing factors from their report:

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    n

  • We count on GDP to develop by 3.5 per cent this yr and 0.5 per cent subsequent yr, with an ‘evens’ probability of GDP being decrease on the finish of this yr than on the finish of final yr.
  • n

  • We forecast client value index inflation to peak near 11 per cent within the fourth quarter, falling again to three per cent on the finish of 2023. We count on retail value index inflation to achieve 17.7 per cent – its highest price since June 1980.
  • n

  • We count on the Financial Coverage Committee to proceed tightening coverage, with Financial institution Price reaching 3 per cent within the second quarter of subsequent yr.
  • n

  • We see unemployment rising above 5 per cent over the approaching twelve months as companies reply to the autumn in combination demand.
  • n

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Additionally arising right now

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Ministers from the Opec oil producers will meet right now, however are usually not anticipated to agree to spice up crude provide, as a attainable world recession might restrict vitality demand.

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The most recent survey of buying managers are anticipated to point out that service sector development slowed within the UK, and throughout Europe, in July.

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And the journey sector continues to wrestle with the summer season rush, with British Airways deciding to limit gross sales for short-haul flights from Heathrow all summer season, with no extra tickets for departures earlier than 15 August.

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The agenda

“,”elementId”:”7deb1036-a022-4f3e-8ab9-7ca23305818e”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

    n

  • 7am BST: German commerce stability for June
  • n

  • 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for July
  • n

  • 9.30am BST: UK companies sector PMI for July
  • n

  • 10am BST: Eurozone retail gross sales for June
  • n

  • Midday: OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Assembly
  • n

  • 3pm BST: US manufacturing unit orders for June
  • n

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Key occasions

A quick recap

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The Opec group of oil producers has defied pressure to significantly increase oil production.

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Despite president Joe Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia last month, the cartel only agreed to increase output by 100,000 barrels per day in September.

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It’s one of the smallest increases in its history, equivalent to around a minute-and-a-half of daily demand.

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Analysts said the move was a rebuff to Western pressure… although also pointed out that some Opec members were struggling to meet existing production goals anyway.

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Randeep Somel, manager of the M&G Climate Solutions Fund, says Joe Biden’s fist bump with Mohammed bin Salman has only delivered a “miniscule OPEC+ production increase”.

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Somel adds:

“,”elementId”:”f8e9174f-f430-416e-b1a5-874aa5ef8412″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“It doesn’t look as if higher oil prices are going to be resolved by a supply response. The key factor now will be how resilient the global economy can be with higher oil prices and if inflation can be tamed despite energy prices remaining high.

n

Otherwise the only option central banks will have is to raise interest rates in order to curtail demand.”

n

“,”elementId”:”545c757a-11ec-4724-ac3b-ff3e9c0e5a40″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/opec-oil-output-biden-production-barrels”,”text”:”Opec approval of minuscule oil output rise is insult to Biden, say analysts”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”b1f7f806-7adf-489f-8989-9e2780098c02″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Tight energy markets will continue to squeeze households, with a warning today that UK consumer price inflation could hit 15% early next year.

“,”elementId”:”22ca38d8-852a-4793-b0e6-9037b5793c43″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/uk-inflation-could-reach-15-by-start-of-2023-experts-say”,”text”:”UK inflation could reach 15% by start of 2023, experts say”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”da4e1744-58e9-4482-b6fb-c8ae99c4d661″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Rising prices and weakening growth leaves the UK at risk of stagflation, the NIESR thinktank warned this morning.

“,”elementId”:”b87b1e66-d5f7-4e07-ada5-e332d81f695a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

It predicts the UK will enter a recession this quarter – which will last until the first quarter of 2023 — pushing up unemployment, and widening economic inequality within the country.

“,”elementId”:”e0993abd-d3ee-4485-893d-80e045423d8c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/inflation-will-soar-to-astronomical-levels-over-next-year-thinktank-warns”,”text”:”UK inflation will soar to ‘astronomical’ levels over next year, thinktank warns”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”fee6911c-f03f-4773-b04a-5545aa12deae”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The government is facing growing calls to provide more support for struggling households.

“,”elementId”:”865ea45f-17e1-4e2b-bb89-4f12a16a0a76″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Charities warned that renters whose utility bills are included in their rent are at the mercy of their landlords and could miss out on the UK government’s existing £400 energy discount.

“,”elementId”:”352a74b4-4b71-43cb-9d38-d4a49ed9b953″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/03/renters-at-mercy-of-landlords-over-400-energy-rebate-uk-charities-warn”,”text”:”Renters ‘at mercy of landlords’ over £400 energy rebate, UK charities warn”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”f1d6120f-d86b-4b0d-9130-a990e8a66b32″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Drivers are still being squeezed too, with a warning that large petrol retailers were too slow to pass on falling wholesale petrol prices.

“,”elementId”:”f15a48cf-b8b8-42d8-8585-899a600f256a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/03/uk-petrol-prices-cost-rac-unleaded”,”text”:”UK petrol prices not falling in line with wholesale cost – RAC”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”9620153d-d08e-4e35-b743-e323f7c8378e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

French energy provided EDF is also strugging in the hot weather, warning that it may need to turn down nuclear output as river temperatures rise, making it harder to cool reactors.

“,”elementId”:”309b1325-4582-4f60-844f-7763dc00ba0f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/edf-to-reduce-nuclear-power-output-as-french-river-temperatures-rise”,”text”:”EDF temporarily reduces nuclear power output as French rivers get too warm”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”73976dc3-3238-40c4-bc20-cd506fd0d47b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Elsewhere today….

“,”elementId”:”f04f5980-e69f-4e11-9b83-a0a649196809″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The global management consultancy Bain & Company has been barred from tendering for UK government contracts for three years after its “grave professional misconduct” in state corruption in South Africa, the Cabinet Office said.

“,”elementId”:”354f3535-28a8-4608-af0b-8626d3e33523″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/aug/03/bain-and-co-barred-from-uk-government-contracts-over-grave-misconduct-in-south-africa”,”text”:”Bain & Co barred from UK government contracts over ‘grave misconduct’ in South Africa”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”9f8ed65f-e59a-4c79-91cc-c77d88a0b84d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The chief executive of Tinder has left the dating app after less than a year after the market value of its parent company plunged by more than a fifth following reporting disappointing results.

“,”elementId”:”ccc5ded9-90e0-4f6b-bc6c-abb2fc75297c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2022/aug/03/tinder-chief-leaves-dating-app-after-one-year-renate-nyborg”,”text”:”Tinder chief leaves dating app after less than a year”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”2c84ddf8-105e-41b5-b534-8b51f2737570″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Adverts for two funeral providers have been banned after they misleadingly implied that their MDF coffins were more eco-friendly than other options.

“,”elementId”:”884bfbf0-bf04-4682-9c09-989236d6b51b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/aug/03/ads-for-two-uk-funeral-firms-banned-over-misleading-eco-friendly-claims”,”text”:”Ads for two UK funeral firms banned over ‘misleading’ eco-friendly claims”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”fdefed06-12d1-4bdd-a004-65143ac27b86″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659537902000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.45 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659539903000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”11.18 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659539903000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”11.18 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”11.18″,”title”:”Closing abstract”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea8e398f08b58de97ebeb6″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Shell is handing the vast majority of its more than 80,000 staff around the world a bonus equivalent to 8% of their annual salary, after the oil company’s profits surged to a record.

“,”elementId”:”2f470e10-a47a-4b77-8799-6f1a7eb3d708″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The UK firm said:

“,”elementId”:”efbe5a25-833c-44ae-b8c9-254acaac5810″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“In recognition of the contribution our people have made to Shell’s strong operational performance against a recent challenging backdrop, our executive committee has decided to make a special recognition award of 8% of salary to all eligible staff across the world.

n

“The award enables those employees to share in our current operational and financial success – it is not a response to inflation or cost-of-living challenges.”

n

“,”elementId”:”c20bec40-72d9-41d0-80e4-d2c4fab0754b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The one-off payment will be made to most of Shell’s 82,000 employees. Only those on its executive committee, along with its executive vice presidents, and contractors are excluded.

“,”elementId”:”d793f0df-5924-4ea6-bddf-be5b1d9e4cec”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Last week, the FTSE 100 company reported a record profit, of $11.5bn, for the second quarter in a row on the back of soaring oil and gas prices, and strong refining profit margins.

“,”elementId”:”622ce4c3-61a2-4ed1-99dc-2508ee57172c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/28/shell-posts-10bn-quarterly-profits-as-households-struggle-with-bills”,”text”:”Shell and Centrica post profits totalling £11bn as households struggle with bills”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”c217bd6b-3d3e-4785-8c4f-1627bb92a5b3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Those profits were described as an insult to millions of strugging households, as soaring energy bills are pushing inflation to the highest level in decades.

“,”elementId”:”d6aa0977-4e98-4722-8293-0b081264df61″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/28/an-insult-soaring-profits-at-shell-and-centrica-cause-outrage”,”text”:”‘An insult’: huge profits at Shell and Centrica cause outrage amid soaring energy bills”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”d37ed3d8-2a09-4ac2-9fd2-9df1583521cb”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659539001000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”11.03 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659539237000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”11.07 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659539237000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”11.07 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”11.07″,”title”:”Shell provides workers 8% bonus after file revenue”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Julia Kollewe”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/contributor/2014/10/15/1413385261859/Julia-Kollewe.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1fd976c7e16b5325a5b81f24809000f7″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julia-Kollewe,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=23f212ea863acfa1e5744c02a3c246fd”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea8af28f08b58de97ebe87″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Resolution’s Jack Leslie has written a handy explanation of why soaring wholesale gas prices will drive UK inflation to such painful levels in 2023.

“,”elementId”:”a22ff287-36c2-4656-8d52-384d9265d275″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The key factor is that the price of the futures contract for natural gas in the coming winter has risen to record levels, following the recent reduction in supply of gas to Germany from Russia.

“,”elementId”:”64e11af8-8832-4469-ad05-47b1ba8fb2a3″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Although these markets are sometimes thinly traded and so prices can be volatile, it is clear that current expectations for gas prices this winter are more than twice what they were prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and higher than the peak in March 2022.

“,”elementId”:”e203689a-36f0-47a8-81b6-1f801e6dca28″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

All of this has pushed forecasts for the energy price cap in October to £3,358 and then £3,615 in January 2023 (substantially higher than when Ofgem wrote to the Chancellor in May with the expectation that the price cap would be £2,800 come the autumn).

n

High gas prices also push up electricity prices, with both leading to increased costs for businesses as well as consumers – costs which are ultimately passed through, meaning families will have to cope with higher and more persistent consumer price inflation.

n

“,”elementId”:”1cd654f0-4972-45cc-bdb1-cd1b1f1f7024″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746388914835458″,”id”:”1554746388914835458″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”a83380cb-b081-43c2-ba11-5ed7e547af51″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746396208685057″,”id”:”1554746396208685057″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e8c079d7-3d79-43ab-9dc4-38d1b4fa38be”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746404073095169″,”id”:”1554746404073095169″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”e378ab03-f8ce-416d-b42d-1795ecc024d7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746413095047168″,”id”:”1554746413095047168″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”2bce007c-70e9-43ff-8029-2d8e796ef3b6″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jackhleslie/status/1554746415624208388″,”id”:”1554746415624208388″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”ccc0e646-65fa-4973-9228-c30e94cf7005″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659538162000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.49 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659538350000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.52 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659538350000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.52 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.52″,”title”:”Why UK inflation might hit 15% subsequent yr”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea874b8f0892e28b4ab159″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Britons have been warned that inflation could hit 15% next year.

“,”elementId”:”20e67989-c932-4fac-8cb0-2cc25528de7a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

In a new report, Resolution Foundation warned that prices could continue to accelerate, and that soaring gas prices will prompt the Bank of England into its biggest interest rate rise since 1995 tomorrow.

“,”elementId”:”c0958f9d-075a-4eaf-a6de-81c0a0e405f8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

UK inflation is already nearing double-digits, even before energy bills jump in October and January, as seems inevitable.

“,”elementId”:”26efcf92-6c71-40be-8deb-c184c9172a8b”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Resolution say the jump in gas prices will drive inflation even higher than feared, even though other commodity prices have eased off.

“,”elementId”:”805c5dc0-4dbf-4569-9099-9cd47cbffac7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

Contrary to many reports, there have been some recent encouraging signs for lower inflation: a range of key imported commodity prices have fallen materially – by up to 61 per cent – since their peaks earlier in the year, reducing global inflationary pressures.

n

But these positive trends have likely been more than offset by a deterioration in the outlook for gas prices, with the energy price cap now expected to top £3,600 early in 2023.

n

This means that consumer price inflation will now peak higher and later than the Bank of England previously thought, with CPI inflation plausibly moving above 15 per cent next year (without Government measures to reduce prices).

n

“,”elementId”:”22b743d8-51c8-46ab-af26-233f1e1d2158″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1554770638597922816″,”id”:”1554770638597922816″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”b654768c-e769-438c-97ae-9dc99ba5b388″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659537227000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”10.33 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659537541000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”10.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659537541000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”10.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”10.39″,”title”:”Decision: put together for 15% inflation in early 2023.”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea6c908f0878ca99e20491″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The OPEC+ plan to raise oil output by a tiny 100,000 barrels per day is being described as ‘almost insulting’ to U.S. President Joe Biden after his trip to Saudi Arabia last month to persuade OPEC’s leader to pump more to help the U.S. and global economy, says Reuters.

“,”elementId”:”ec5f57a6-77b6-4eae-b47b-3f4404f2e542″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The increase, equivalent to 86 seconds of global oil demand, comes after weeks of speculation that Biden’s trip to the Middle East and Washington’s clearance of missile defence system sales to Riyadh and the United Arab Emirates will bring in more oil.

“,”elementId”:”53258193-3da8-4fc1-abf6-fe8579d74680″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

An OPEC+ document showed the group was set to raise output by 100,000 bpd from September and two sources said it has been effectively rubber-stamped by a close-door meeting.

“,”elementId”:”1cc86b3e-6651-4a9c-9460-f3584e894d54″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

“That is so little as to be meaningless. From a physical standpoint it is a marginal blip. As a political gesture it is almost insulting,” said Raad Alkadiri, managing director for energy, climate, and sustainability at Eurasia Group.

“,”elementId”:”6ba15a01-c5d8-4f27-87b2-473f2f8f0e75″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

OPEC and its allies led by Russia have been previously increasing production by about 430,000-650,000 bpd a month although they have struggled to meet full targets as most members have already exhausted their output potential.

“,”elementId”:”005786db-62d9-44d7-8a34-faa2e281abef”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/AlexLawler100/status/1554809226052214786″,”id”:”1554809226052214786″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”cfd2e89f-eafc-4854-a4a1-f5a969048ded”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

More here: OPEC+ set to approve minuscule oil output rise in rebuff to Biden

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OPEC+ has reportedly agreed to raise its September oil output targets by 100,000 barrels per day, dashing hopes of a larger increase.

“,”elementId”:”62ebd4b5-0b02-4145-b6a9-8ff6e7c317df”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The decision, at today’s meeting of oil ministers, should bring some more supplies onto the market…but it’s a much slower pace than in earlier months.

“,”elementId”:”bcfeee4b-f175-4d14-ba66-df9355f3291e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

For both July and August, for example, the group had pledged to raise output by 600,000 barrels, having added an extra 400k per month at earlier meetings.

“,”elementId”:”74e26b08-1910-4501-9a62-4bdc2dfebaac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TweetBlockElement”,”html”:”

n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1554807700202131456″,”id”:”1554807700202131456″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”1c2655dc-e456-4f77-b459-67893d876274″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

The US has been pushing Opec to boost output, but President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia last month did not yield an agreement.

“,”elementId”:”89c4df7c-aaec-4a37-9900-51de19a0ea4c”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

However, some Opec+ members had already been struggling to deliver previous output targets, having exhausted their spare production.

“,”elementId”:”c44f3852-7eb4-42d5-a9bd-78a886514657″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here’s Bloomberg’s take:

“,”elementId”:”d32d6c4e-228b-4a61-8a92-9152b5184aa0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

The 23-nation alliance would divide the increase proportionally between members, delegates said. In recent months, with only the Saudis and the United Arab Emirates able to bolster production, just a fraction of the group’s promised increases have reached world markets. There were no discussions about whether the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies would keep increasing production beyond September, they said.

n

The agreement is only a modest indication that Riyadh and Washington are on a path toward reconciliation, coming after a visit to the kingdom last month that saw US President Joe Biden greet Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman with a fist bump. Late on Tuesday, the US approved the sale of $3.05 billion of weapons including Patriot missiles to the Middle East heavyweight.

n

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/jenstilmanydots/status/1554806880236474369″,”id”:”1554806880236474369″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”920cce8f-eedf-4982-a3eb-362480762a2b”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659529422000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.23 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659530348000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659530349000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.39 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.39″,”title”:”Opec+ agrees small improve in oil output – stories”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 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In different vitality information… German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has insisted that Russia had no motive to carry up the return of a fuel turbine for the Nord Stream 1 fuel pipeline.

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The turbine is stranded in Germany, following servicing in Canada, in an escalating standoff that has seen has flows to Europe fall to a trickle, simply 20% of capability.

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Standing subsequent to the turbine on a manufacturing unit go to to Siemens Power in Muelheim an der Ruhr, Scholz stated it was totally operational and could possibly be shipped again to Russia at any time – offered Moscow was keen to take it again.

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“The turbine works,” Scholz stated, telling reporters:.

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n

“It’s fairly clear and easy: the turbine is there and may be delivered, however somebody must say ‘I need to have it’”.

n

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However Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov blamed a scarcity of documentation for holding up the turbine’s return to Russia.

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Chancellor Olaf Scholz insists fuel turbine at centre of row with Russia works”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea57518f08b58de97ebc24″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Senior Labour MPs have written to the chief executive of BT, urging him to intervene in a pay dispute which has sparked strikes by thousands of workers.

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The party’s deputy leader, Angela Rayner, and shadow digital, media and sport secretary Lucy Powell urged Philip Jansen to enter into negotiations with the Communication Workers Union (CWU).

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They said he should follow the lead of other chief executives and “take your place at the negotiating table to find a fair deal”.

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CWU members at BT and Openreach have staged two 24-hour strikes in recent days in protest at a 1,500 pay increase which the union described as a real-terms wage cut because of the soaring rate of inflation.

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BT, though, is unwilling to restart pay talks – Jansen said last week that the £1,500 pay deal offered to frontline staff was “history” and not open for negotiation.

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A BT Group spokesman said:

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n

“At the start of this year, we were in exhaustive discussions with the CWU that lasted for two months, trying hard to reach an agreement on pay.

n

“When it became clear that we were not going to reach an accord, we took the decision to go ahead with awarding our frontline colleagues the highest pay award in more than 20 years, representing a pay rise of around 5% on average and 8% for the lowest paid.

n

“We have been in constant dialogue with the CWU and we have reaffirmed our willingness to discuss how we move forward from here but it would be inappropriate to reopen negotiations on a pay award that we implemented in April, when it was due.”

n

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The summer of industrial unrest has caused tensions within Labour, over leader Keir Starmer’s policy that frontbenchers should not join on picket lines.

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Rayner and Powell met union officials in a Zoom meeting on Monday, but shadow levelling up minister Lisa Nandy did visit striking BT workers on Monday, to show supporr for constituents campaigning for better pay and conditions.

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British services sector activity growth has slowed to its slowest pace since early 2021, during a Covid-19 lockdown.

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Outpur growth hit a 17-month low in July, as the economy was hit by the highest inflation in 40 years. Order books remained subdued, and confidence about the future remained at an historically subdued level.

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But there were also signs that inflationary pressures could be easing a little, as input cost inflation softened to its lowest since December 2021.

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This pulled S&P Global/CIPS UK Services Purchasing Managers’ Index down to 52.6, down from 54.3 in June — and weaker than the ‘flash’ reading taken in mid-July.

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Tim Moore, S&P World Market Intelligence’s economics director, stated.

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n

“UK service suppliers reported their worst month for enterprise exercise enlargement because the nationwide lockdown in February 2021.

n

Lowered ranges of discretionary client spending and efforts by companies to include bills because of escalating inflation have mixed to squeeze demand throughout the service economic system.

n

The near-term outlook additionally appears subdued, as new order development held near June’s 16-month low and enterprise optimism was the second weakest since Could 2020.

n

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The eurozone private sector shrank last month for the first time since Febuary 2021, as manufacturing output declined and the service sector slowed.

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Companies across both sector blamed the damaging impact that high inflation was having on output levels, with businesses hit by a fall in new orders and growing economic uncertainty.

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The latest survey of eurozone purchasing managers, from S&P Global, found that the manufacturing sector was a significant drag on the euro area economy during July as production volumes fell at the fastest rate since May 2020.

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Services activity continued to rise overall, but growth slowed to its weakest since the Omicron-related disruption at the start of the year.

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n”,”url”:”https://twitter.com/SPGlobalPMI/status/1554741476248133632″,”id”:”1554741476248133632″,”hasMedia”:false,”role”:”inline”,”isThirdPartyTracking”:false,”source”:”Twitter”,”elementId”:”37e0a066-900a-4679-a53c-55679d8cc244″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659514598000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.16 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659515277000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659515277000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.27 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.27″,”title”:”Eurozone ‘slips into contraction’ as inflation hits economic system”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 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Taylor Wimpey, one in every of Britain’s greatest housebuilders, is handing a lot of its workers a cost of as much as £1,000 to assist them with hovering dwelling prices.

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Workers on annual salaries of as much as £70,000 will qualify for the cost, to assist them deal with rising inflation and the anticipated improve in gas payments this winter, my colleague Julie Kollewe stories.

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Different corporations have additionally been giving employees one-off funds to assist; HSBC agreed a £1,500 cost for lower-paid employees earlier this week.

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Taylor Wimpey’s transfer got here after a stable set of first-half outcomes with revenues of £2.1bn, down 5.4% from final yr, and a revenue earlier than tax of £334.5m, up 16.3%. Excluding joint ventures, the corporate accomplished on 6,790 properties, down from 7,303 final yr however forward of its expectations.

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The group, run by Jennie Daly, now expects full yr working revenue towards the highest finish of £873-£924m. That’s pushed by sturdy common promoting costs which are anticipated to be 4%-5% increased than final yr, totally offsetting 9%-10% construct price inflation.

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Taylor Wimpey shares have risen 2.3% on the information.

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Matt Britzman, fairness analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, stated:

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n

“This was an excellent set of numbers in opposition to the backdrop of file efficiency final yr.

n

There’s nonetheless a structural provide/demand imbalance within the UK propping up costs regardless of client spending energy falling. The ahead order guide appears sturdy and Taylor Wimpey’s doubling down on efforts to take full benefit, opening the test guide to push extra retailers and being new land plots into the fold.

n

Price inflation stays a thorn, working round 9-10% however totally offset by increased costs for now. It stays to be seen how lengthy that may proceed, however whereas it does shareholders can proceed to count on stable returns.”

n

“,”elementId”:”71f4dbca-1941-4e9d-bb19-33fcb08b713f”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659511128000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”03.18 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659513787000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.03 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659513758000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.02 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.02″,”title”:”Taylor Wimpey employees to get £1,000 to assist with price of dwelling squeeze”,”contributors”:[{“name”:”Julia Kollewe”,”imageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/contributor/2014/10/15/1413385261859/Julia-Kollewe.jpg?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=1fd976c7e16b5325a5b81f24809000f7″,”largeImageUrl”:”https://i.guim.co.uk/img/uploads/2017/10/06/Julia-Kollewe,-L.png?width=300&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=23f212ea863acfa1e5744c02a3c246fd”}],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”},{“id”:”62ea1b328f0892e28b4aacc5″,”parts”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Major retailers are moving too slowly to cut petrol prices, the RAC has warned.

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Although fuel prices did drop last month, those reductions still don’t fairly reflect the fall in the wholesale price of fuel.

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My colleague Gemma McSherry explains:

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n

Over the last eight weeks, the average price paid for unleaded by drivers across the UK has only dropped by 9p a litre – all of which came off in July – despite wholesale petrol prices falling by 20p in the same time period.

n

According to the motoring organisation, the wholesale cost of unleaded is now back to the prices reached in early May, meaning a litre should be 167p, not 183p.

n

The disparity in cost from wholesale to consumer means drivers are paying nearly £9 more on a tank of petrol than they should be, it said. A tank of diesel should be lower than the end of July average, the RAC added.

n

“,”elementId”:”9e002554-d0a9-429b-bfcc-cb329c00d0f7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/03/uk-petrol-prices-cost-rac-unleaded”,”text”:”UK petrol prices not falling in line with wholesale cost – RAC”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”role”:”inline”,”elementId”:”c816387e-7876-42c6-9b51-a69eb95800f4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

RAC fuel spokesperson, Simon Williams, criticed the supermarket chains for not cutting prices faster last month:

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n

“July has been an unnecessarily tough month for drivers due to the big four supermarkets’ unwillingness to cut their prices to a more a reasonable level, reflecting the consistent and significant reductions in the wholesale cost of petrol and diesel.”

n

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NIESR have also slashed their global growth forecasts, and lifted their inflation forecasts, warning that the world economy also risks stagflation.

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Global GDP is only expected to rise by 2.8% this year, and again in 2023, down from 3.3% and 3.2% growth which was forecast in the spring.

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And inflation across the OECD is now seen soaring to 9.7% this year (up from 8.2% forecast previously), and only drop back to 6.3% in 2023 (up from 4.5%).

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“The world economic system is fraying on the edges”, warns Corrado Macchiarelli, NIESR’s Supervisor for World Macroeconomics Analysis:

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n

The easing of financial and monetary situations throughout Covid, persevering with disruptions to provide chains and the persevering with conflict in Ukraine have prompted us to revise world GDP development down and inflation up even additional, in comparison with our Spring Outlook.

n

Uncertainty round Russia’s provide of fuel to the Euro Space, the impact that increased coverage and market rates of interest could have on world demand, and the impression of upper gas and meals value rises on rising markets are among the many key draw back dangers to this forecast.”

n

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Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the world economy and the financial markets.

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The UK is heading into a period of stagflation with high inflation and a looming recession dealing a double-blow to the country as a winter of economic misery approaches.

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That’s the chilling warning from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research this morning, which fears that one in five households will be left without savings by 2024, as the cost-of-living crisis hits.

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In its latest quarterly outlook of the UK economy, NIESR warns that CPI inflation is anticipated to peak close to 11 per cent in the fourth quarter of this year, when energy bills across Britain are expected to soar over £3,000 per year.

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Those soaring prices mean average real household disposable incomes would shrink by 2.5% this year, as wages fail to keep up with inflation.

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NIESR warns that vulnerable households will be worse hit. It predicts the UK will enter a recession this quarter – which will last until the first quarter of 2023 — pushing up unemployment.

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This could worsen financial inequality throughout the nation, scuppering the Levelling Up agenda.

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NIESR sees the hole between London and the remainder of the UK widening, because the West Midlands, and components of Wales and Scotland proceed to fall additional behind.

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The federal government should give extra help to assist struggling households by the disaster, insists Professor Adrian Pabst, NIESR’s Deputy Director for Public Coverage:

“,”elementId”:”4e2033e8-ba9f-46f5-a466-fa50108337c6″},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“All households are going through hovering vitality and meals payments however too many should resort to credit score, construct up cost arrears or see their financial savings worn out.

n

The incoming administration wants to supply instant emergency help to the 1.2 million hardest hit households and the one-in-five households that can develop into financially weak because the vitality value cap is lifted and the recession begins to chew.”

n

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Right here’s the complete story:

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And listed below are the important thing factors from their report:

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    n

  • We count on GDP to develop by 3.5 per cent this yr and 0.5 per cent subsequent yr, with an ‘evens’ probability of GDP being decrease on the finish of this yr than on the finish of final yr.
  • n

  • We forecast client value index inflation to peak near 11 per cent within the fourth quarter, falling again to three per cent on the finish of 2023. We count on retail value index inflation to achieve 17.7 per cent – its highest price since June 1980.
  • n

  • We count on the Financial Coverage Committee to proceed tightening coverage, with Financial institution Price reaching 3 per cent within the second quarter of subsequent yr.
  • n

  • We see unemployment rising above 5 per cent over the approaching twelve months as companies reply to the autumn in combination demand.
  • n

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Additionally arising right now

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Ministers from the Opec oil producers will meet right now, however are usually not anticipated to agree to spice up crude provide, as a attainable world recession might restrict vitality demand.

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The most recent survey of buying managers are anticipated to point out that service sector development slowed within the UK, and throughout Europe, in July.

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And the journey sector continues to wrestle with the summer season rush, with British Airways deciding to limit gross sales for short-haul flights from Heathrow all summer season, with no extra tickets for departures earlier than 15 August.

“,”elementId”:”1b14f65c-8c57-4241-8c45-5164ea00827b”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/enterprise/2022/aug/02/ba-restricts-sales-for-heathrow-short-haul-flights-for-rest-of-summer”,”textual content”:”BA restricts gross sales for Heathrow short-haul flights for remainder of summer season”,”prefix”:”Associated: “,”position”:”inline”,”elementId”:”65479055-0014-4aab-8823-292c3422ce90″},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”7deb1036-a022-4f3e-8ab9-7ca23305818e”},{“_type”:”mannequin.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

    n

  • 7am BST: German commerce stability for June
  • n

  • 9am BST: Eurozone service sector PMI for July
  • n

  • 9.30am BST: UK companies sector PMI for July
  • n

  • 10am BST: Eurozone retail gross sales for June
  • n

  • Midday: OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Assembly
  • n

  • 3pm BST: US manufacturing unit orders for June
  • n

“,”elementId”:”ff19edf8-d85e-45b3-bb52-d2c08c51efb3″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”abstract”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1659507087000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.11 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1659510142000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”03.02 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1659507087000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.11 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.11″,”title”:”Introduction: UK going through recession and cost-of-living disaster”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Wed 3 Aug 2022 11.34 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First revealed on Wed 3 Aug 2022 02.11 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”}”>

Filters BETA

A late PS – the oil value has now dropped again, with Brent crude sliding again under $100 per barrel.

Brent misplaced its earlier restoration, after the most recent US oil stock figures confirmed a shock rise in shares final week (suggesting decrease demand than anticipated).

Victoria Scholar, head of funding at Interactive Investor, tells us what’s occurring:

Oil costs are buying and selling sharply decrease by round 2% as Brent crude approaches vital near-term help at $98 a barrel. OPEC+ selected a minimal output improve of 100,000 in barrels per day, with the slight provide improve catalysing the transfer decrease. It’s understood that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are the one producers really in a position to increase their oil manufacturing.

On high of that information from the EIA noticed that US crude shares unexpectedly rose by 426.55 million barrels final week, versus expectations for a draw of 600,000. This echoed what we noticed yesterday by way of the most recent API figures, stunning analysts with a construct for crude oil versus expectations for a draw. There was already nervous value motion this morning with brent crude breaking under $100 a barrel with OPEC+’s choice reinforcing the bearish transfer decrease.

After peaking in March this yr with the conflict in Ukraine exacerbating current oil value inflation, costs have began to retreat from the highs with Brent crude again in double digit territory.

Closing abstract

A fast recap

The Opec group of oil producers has defied strain to considerably improve oil manufacturing.

Regardless of president Joe Biden’s journey to Saudi Arabia final month, the cartel solely agreed to extend output by 100,000 barrels per day in September.

It’s one of many smallest will increase in its historical past, equal to round a minute-and-a-half of day by day demand.

Analysts stated the transfer was a rebuff to Western strain… though additionally identified that some Opec members have been struggling to fulfill current manufacturing targets anyway.

Randeep Somel, supervisor of the M&G Local weather Options Fund, says Joe Biden’s fist bump with Mohammed bin Salman has solely delivered a “miniscule OPEC+ manufacturing improve”.

Somel provides:

“It doesn’t look as if increased oil costs are going to be resolved by a provide response. The important thing issue now might be how resilient the worldwide economic system may be with increased oil costs and if inflation may be tamed regardless of vitality costs remaining excessive.

In any other case the one possibility central banks could have is to lift rates of interest as a way to curtail demand.”

Tight vitality markets will proceed to squeeze households, with a warning right now that UK client value inflation might hit 15% early subsequent yr.

Rising costs and weakening development leaves the UK vulnerable to stagflation, the NIESR thinktank warned this morning.

It predicts the UK will enter a recession this quarter – which is able to final till the primary quarter of 2023 — pushing up unemployment, and widening financial inequality inside the nation.

The federal government is going through rising calls to supply extra help for struggling households.

Charities warned that renters whose utility payments are included of their hire are on the mercy of their landlords and will miss out on the UK authorities’s current £400 vitality low cost.

Drivers are nonetheless being squeezed too, with a warning that giant petrol retailers have been too sluggish to go on falling wholesale petrol costs.

French vitality offered EDF can also be strugging within the scorching climate, warning that it might want to show down nuclear output as river temperatures rise, making it more durable to chill reactors.

Elsewhere right now….

The worldwide administration consultancy Bain & Firm has been barred from tendering for UK authorities contracts for 3 years after its “grave skilled misconduct” in state corruption in South Africa, the Cupboard Workplace stated.

The chief govt of Tinder has left the courting app after lower than a yr after the market worth of its guardian firm plunged by greater than a fifth following reporting disappointing outcomes.

Adverts for 2 funeral suppliers have been banned after they misleadingly implied that their MDF coffins have been extra eco-friendly than different choices.

Shell provides workers 8% bonus after file revenue

Julia Kollewe

Julia Kollewe

Shell is handing the overwhelming majority of its greater than 80,000 employees world wide a bonus equal to eight% of their annual wage, after the oil firm’s earnings surged to a file.

The UK agency stated:

“In recognition of the contribution our individuals have made to Shell’s sturdy operational efficiency in opposition to a current difficult backdrop, our govt committee has determined to make a particular recognition award of 8% of wage to all eligible employees the world over.

“The award permits these workers to share in our present operational and monetary success – it’s not a response to inflation or cost-of-living challenges.”

The one-off cost might be made to most of Shell’s 82,000 workers. Solely these on its govt committee, together with its govt vice presidents, and contractors are excluded.

Final week, the FTSE 100 firm reported a file revenue, of $11.5bn, for the second quarter in a row on the again of hovering oil and fuel costs, and powerful refining revenue margins.

These earnings have been described as an insult to tens of millions of strugging households, as hovering vitality payments are pushing inflation to the best stage in a long time.

Inflation hits these on decrease incomes hardest – as they’ve the least financial savings to cushion the blow, and fewer discretionary spending to chop again on.

Additionally, the common inflation price they face is increased, and important spending on meals and heating make up a bigger chunk of their budgets.

Meaning extra help is required for low-income households this winter.

Whoever the brand new Prime Minister is, goes to should give attention to the price of dwelling disaster within the Autumn – it’s implausible to recommend that the present stage of help for households might be sufficient.

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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Whoever the brand new Prime Minister is, goes to should give attention to the price of dwelling disaster within the Autumn – it’s implausible to recommend that the present stage of help for households might be sufficient.

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

Why UK inflation might hit 15% subsequent yr

Decision’s Jack Leslie has written a useful rationalization of why hovering wholesale fuel costs will drive UK inflation to such painful ranges in 2023.

The important thing issue is that the value of the futures contract for pure fuel within the coming winter has risen to file ranges, following the current discount in provide of fuel to Germany from Russia.

Though these markets are generally thinly traded and so costs may be unstable, it’s clear that present expectations for fuel costs this winter are greater than twice what they have been previous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and better than the height in March 2022.

All of this has pushed forecasts for the vitality value cap in October to £3,358 after which £3,615 in January 2023 (considerably increased than when Ofgem wrote to the Chancellor in Could with the expectation that the value cap could be £2,800 come the autumn).

Excessive fuel costs additionally push up electrical energy costs, with each resulting in elevated prices for companies in addition to shoppers – prices that are in the end handed by, that means households should deal with increased and extra persistent client value inflation.

The information has not been all dangerous because the Financial institution of England's final financial coverage report. There was a widespread fall in commodity costs – e.g. copper costs (in sterling) are down 11 per cent on January ranges. pic.twitter.com/WvME6Awa3M

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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The information has not been all dangerous because the Financial institution of England’s final financial coverage report. There was a widespread fall in commodity costs – e.g. copper costs (in sterling) are down 11 per cent on January ranges. pic.twitter.com/WvME6Awa3M

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

Certainly, costs have fallen again considerably throughout commodities since their 2022 peaks. However most costs are nonetheless up because the begin of the yr and manufacturing enter value inflation is at 24 per cent (a full 8.9 proportion factors above the pre-2022 recorded peak!). pic.twitter.com/tW6gNRFXPn

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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Certainly, costs have fallen again considerably throughout commodities since their 2022 peaks. However most costs are nonetheless up because the begin of the yr and manufacturing enter value inflation is at 24 per cent (a full 8.9 proportion factors above the pre-2022 recorded peak!). pic.twitter.com/tW6gNRFXPn

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

And, for client costs, any current falls in commodity costs have been greater than offset by the horrendous rise in European fuel costs. The vitality value cap is now set to hit £3,600 ish within the new yr – getting on for 4 occasions the standard pre-2022 stage. pic.twitter.com/NMwMRfuTDu

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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And, for client costs, any current falls in commodity costs have been greater than offset by the horrendous rise in European fuel costs. The vitality value cap is now set to hit £3,600 ish within the new yr – getting on for 4 occasions the standard pre-2022 stage. pic.twitter.com/NMwMRfuTDu

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

That every one signifies that the height in inflation is ready to be increased than beforehand thought and last more. Forecasting inflation based mostly on historic time collection dynamics of inflation indexes (plus the anticipated vitality value cap) means that CPI inflation might plausibly hit 15%. pic.twitter.com/uXv76V1R5B

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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That every one signifies that the height in inflation is ready to be increased than beforehand thought and last more. Forecasting inflation based mostly on historic time collection dynamics of inflation indexes (plus the anticipated vitality value cap) means that CPI inflation might plausibly hit 15%. pic.twitter.com/uXv76V1R5B

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

There may be a lot uncertainty in how lengthy the interval of excessive inflation lasts. It’s possible obligatory that vitality costs begin to fall from present ranges to realize the comparatively swift discount in inflation most count on (HMT's survey of forecasters suggests 4.7% by the top of 2023)

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

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There may be a lot uncertainty in how lengthy the interval of excessive inflation lasts. It’s possible obligatory that vitality costs begin to fall from present ranges to realize the comparatively swift discount in inflation most count on (HMT’s survey of forecasters suggests 4.7% by the top of 2023)

— Jack Leslie (@jackhleslie) August 3, 2022

Decision: put together for 15% inflation in early 2023.

Britons have been warned that inflation might hit 15% subsequent yr.

In a brand new report, Decision Basis warned that costs might proceed to speed up, and that hovering fuel costs will immediate the Financial institution of England into its greatest rate of interest rise since 1995 tomorrow.

UK inflation is already nearing double-digits, even earlier than vitality payments soar in October and January, as appears inevitable.

Decision say the soar in fuel costs will drive inflation even increased than feared, although different commodity costs have eased off.

Opposite to many stories, there have been some current encouraging indicators for decrease inflation: a spread of key imported commodity costs have fallen materially – by as much as 61 per cent – since their peaks earlier within the yr, decreasing world inflationary pressures.

However these optimistic developments have possible been greater than offset by a deterioration within the outlook for fuel costs, with the vitality value cap now anticipated to high £3,600 early in 2023.

Which means that client value inflation will now peak increased and later than the Financial institution of England beforehand thought, with CPI inflation plausibly transferring above 15 per cent subsequent yr (with out Authorities measures to cut back costs).

The @bankofengland is prone to forecast the next and later peak for inflation, says @jackhleslie – probably as much as 15 per cent in early 2023. How lengthy this might final is unsure, however the price of dwelling disaster appears set to last more and hit more durable than beforehand anticipated. pic.twitter.com/lXgTC2mOIP

— Decision Basis (@resfoundation) August 3, 2022

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The @bankofengland is prone to forecast the next and later peak for inflation, says @jackhleslie – probably as much as 15 per cent in early 2023. How lengthy this might final is unsure, however the price of dwelling disaster appears set to last more and hit more durable than beforehand anticipated. pic.twitter.com/lXgTC2mOIP

— Decision Basis (@resfoundation) August 3, 2022

Bloomberg’s vitality editor Javier Blas confirms that some Opec+ members gained’t have the ability to meet their share of the oil improve, although it’s smaller than the White Home hoped:

#OOTT 2/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

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The OPEC+ 100,000 b/d output hike compares to an expectation in Washington just a few days in the past that Saudi Arabia would lead the cartel to spice up manufacturing by 400,000-500,000 b/d. For weeks, US officers have stated they anticipated optimistic steps on the Aug 3 OPEC+ assembly | #OOTT 2/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

#OOTT 3/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

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The OPEC+ improve is not actual, both, as most member are already pumping at their most capability. Solely Saudi Arabia and the UAE can improve. In the event that they adhere to their quotas, the 100,000 b/d interprets in an additional 26,000 b/d for Riyadh and eight,000 b/d for Abu Dhabi | #OOTT 3/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

…whereas those that can pump extra will accomplish that fairly rapidly, he provides:

Let's put the 26,000 b/d Saudi improve into context: the dominion's quota for Sept is 11.006m b/d. That's ~7,650 barrels per minute. So Riyadh would produce the additional oil in about three minutes and a half. A bit longer {that a} fist bump greeting, however not loads longer | #OOTT 4/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

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Let’s put the 26,000 b/d Saudi improve into context: the dominion’s quota for Sept is 11.006m b/d. That is ~7,650 barrels per minute. So Riyadh would produce the additional oil in about three minutes and a half. A bit longer {that a} fist bump greeting, however not loads longer | #OOTT 4/4

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

As we speak’s OPEC+ members’ choice to lift oil output by 100,000 barrels per day “is a step ahead,” a senior U.S. administration official has informed Reuters.

President Joe Biden desires to see extra, they added, and can push at dwelling and overseas on vitality provides.

We might not even get the complete further 100,000 barrels per day from Opec+ members subsequent month, cautions Noah Barrett, analysis analyst for Power & Utilities at Janus Henderson Buyers:

OPEC+ agreed to extend manufacturing by 100kb/d in September and the rise might be break up amongst member nations.

On condition that some nations are presently underproducing their quotas, because of this they could not have the ability to ship on their portion of the 100kb/d September improve. So although we see a headline improve of 100kb/d (which is pretty small), the precise provide improve could also be even decrease than that.

Barrett agrees that the US was in all probability hoping for extra from Opec, particularly after Biden’s current journey to the Center East.

However given general provide/demand administration, Opec+’s choice is logical, he provides:

There’s nonetheless an excessive amount of uncertainty on oil demand within the again half of this yr, pushed by questions round Chinese language demand, and the potential for U.S. or perhaps a world recession.

Moreover, spare capability stays tight; OPEC’s press launch categorized spare capability availability as “severely restricted”, which additionally limits OPEC’s skill to deliver a fabric provide improve into the market.

The US economic system remained weak in July, in accordance with new information exhibiting non-public sector output contracted on the quickest tempo for over two years

Information agency S&P World Perception stories that non-public sector enterprise exercise shrank in July, for the primary time since June 2020 and broad-based.

It’s newest buying supervisor survey exhibits that output fell, whereas new export orders weighed on general new enterprise once more, as overseas consumer demand deteriorated.

5 out of seven US sectors have been hit by decrease output, with solely industrials and tech growing.

US PMI
US PMI {Photograph}: S&P World Perception

The US economic system has already shrunk in Q1 and Q2, and Chris Williamson, chief enterprise economist at S&P World Market Intelligence, stated the info suggests US GDP might fall for a 3rd quarter in a row:

“US financial situations worsened markedly in July, with enterprise exercise falling throughout each the manufacturing and repair sectors.

Excluding pandemic lockdown months, the general fall in output was the most important recorded because the world monetary disaster and alerts a robust chance that the economic system will contract for a 3rd consecutive quarter.

A rise of 100,000 barrels of oil per day might sound like rather a lot, nevertheless it’s really simply 0.1% of worldwide demand (estimated at round 99m barrels per day).

It’s additionally one of many smallest rises within the oil cartel’s historical past, which can not placate Western calls for for extra oil to chill inflation.

#OOTT 1/4 https://t.co/3KO9hcdQU0

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

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OPEC+ agreed to a tiny oil output hike of 100,000 b/d for Sept, sending Brent again above $100 a barrel.

The rise (the 2nd smallest hike within the cartel’s historical past, solely behind one in 1986) comes regardless of President Biden’s journey to Saudi Arabia | #OOTT 1/4 https://t.co/3KO9hcdQU0

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 3, 2022

The oil value has recovered earlier losses after Opec+ determined to sluggish the tempo of their manufacturing will increase.

Brent crude rose again over $100 per barrel, after dipping towards $99 this morning.

The Brent crude oil price today
The Brent crude oil value right now {Photograph}: Refinitiv

“Continual underinvestment within the oil sector has lowered extra capacities alongside the worth chain”

That is what occurs. No shock right here. If The Permian is struggling to search out crews & gear, then so is OPEC+ https://t.co/EHIVTuPZ3Q

— Thomas P (@Pref_Right) August 3, 2022

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“Continual underinvestment within the oil sector has lowered extra capacities alongside the worth chain”

That is what occurs. No shock right here. If The Permian is struggling to search out crews & gear, then so is OPEC+ https://t.co/EHIVTuPZ3Q

— Thomas P (@Pref_Right) August 3, 2022

Opec+ has warned that ‘choronic underinvestment’ within the oil sector is making it more durable to fulfill demand.

The group has issued a press release confirming right now’s choice to extend output by (simply) 100,000 barrels of crude oil per day in September.

However ii additionally warns that the “severely restricted availability” of extra capability means it should be used with “nice warning” in response to extreme provide disruptions.

The Assembly famous that “continual underinvestment within the oil sector” has lowered extra capacities throughout the sector — from upstream (discovering new reserves), to midstream (transporting and storing it) and downstream (refining and promoting it).

This implies it is going to be exhausting to fulfill demand past subsequent yr, it provides:

The Assembly highlighted with explicit concern that inadequate funding into the upstream sector will impression the supply of sufficient provide in a well timed method to fulfill rising demand past 2023 from non-participating non-OPEC oil-producing nations, some OPEC Member International locations and taking part non-OPEC oil-producing nations.

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