Mayor Lori Lightfoot informed Chicagoans practically two years in the past that her resolution to tie how a lot the town of Chicago collects in property taxes to the speed of inflation made sensible sense for each the town and taxpayers, and likewise confirmed she had a political self-discipline that her predecessors lacked.

In any case, inflation for many of the earlier twenty years had hovered at or beneath a really affordable 3%.

However because the first-term mayor kicks off her election-year price range push throughout the worst inflation disaster in a minimum of two generations, Lightfoot has to resolve how robust her political will actually is. If Lightfoot decides to gather the complete quantity allowed below her annual tax system, the tax improve would practically quadruple in 2023 to $85.5 million, based on a Tribune evaluation of the property tax levy and the mayor’s coverage.

Whereas directed at property house owners, the tax is prone to have an effect on not solely owners however renters and companies throughout the town, hitting Chicagoans already reeling from larger prices at gasoline pumps and in grocery shops.

What’s extra, the opportunity of a tax hike provides to the anxiousness and uncertainty property house owners are already dealing with as a result of Prepare dinner County property tax payments for this yr are late and officers have mentioned there possible might be delays in upcoming years as nicely.

River North restaurateur Michael Nahabedian mentioned he’s involved about “all of the trickle-down impacts” a possible citywide tax improve may have.

“We fear about whether or not the workers will be capable to afford to reside close by, we fear concerning the prices for people who find themselves interested by coming to the restaurant to eat,” mentioned Nahabedian, who leases an area for his restaurant, Brindille. “We fear concerning the subsequent lease. And we wish to see one thing from the town for these rising prices.”

Whereas nationwide inflation is hovering round 9%, the mayor’s plan caps any inflation-based tax hike at 5%. And will probably be as much as the mayor to resolve if the town will take the complete 5% bump below her signature tax program or some share much less.

If Lightfoot does increase taxes, Northwest Facet landlord Saima Causevic was blunt about what would occur subsequent: “We’ll move the fee on to tenants, as a result of we have now to, however they will’t afford to pay extra. They simply can’t.”

The Lightfoot administration is beginning its 2023 price range course of with three public boards starting Thursday at Kennedy-King Faculty, and the query of whether or not the mayor will make the most of her full taxing energy will possible come up.

Dealing with a tough February reelection bid towards a rising subject of challengers, in addition to a restive Chicago Metropolis Council filled with aldermen who’re additionally searching for new phrases subsequent yr, she may resolve to forego some or all of it.

Aldermen may have their very own politically fraught election yr monetary choices to make.

In 2006, Metropolis Council members arrange a system through which they stopped voting yearly about whether or not to present themselves raises and as an alternative tied automated wage bumps to inflation.

For 2022, aldermen acquired automated raises of practically 5.5%, which meant a $6,743 improve for the highest-paid council members, who now receives a commission $130,000 a yr. The speed for his or her 2023 raises hasn’t but been set, however there isn’t any inflation cap on aldermanic pay bumps so with the 9% inflation price, the wage hike subsequent yr may very well be large.

All 50 members of the council are all the time capable of individually flip the raises down, a choice they sometimes should make in September, 5 months earlier than the February municipal election. Final yr, 45 out of fifty aldermen took the raises, however they weren’t months away from dealing with voters at that time.

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Lightfoot, in the meantime, campaigned in 2019 as an antidote to politically motivated budgeting.

Her argument on the time was that by tying the annual bumps to inflation, she would transfer Chicago away from the standard yo-yoing impact of mayors elevating taxes by massive quantities instantly after successful an election, solely to enact extra austere budgets that don’t require such will increase when their phrases are practically up.

Now confronted with the ugly actuality of this yr’s skyrocketing inflation, Lightfoot may resolve to chop again the property tax improve, which may assist her with voters but in addition undermine her preliminary arguments. Nonetheless, that is likely to be preferable to attempting to defend herself on the marketing campaign path towards fees she heaped extra monetary ache on Chicagoans throughout an inflationary disaster.

As well as, the mayor — who has pledged to do a greater job working with aldermen after quite a few high-profile clashes with members of the Metropolis Council throughout her first time period — could not wish to attempt to spherical up help within the physique for an unpopular election yr tax improve.

As a result of Lightfoot made the inflationary tax set off an automated a part of every price range going ahead to assist pay the town’s underfunded pensions, aldermen wouldn’t must vote particularly on the $85.5 million improve. However they’d nonetheless must OK your complete metropolis price range, which would come with that tax hike. And with a lot consideration on inflation, it may not be a straightforward elevate to spherical up 26 votes for that total price range package deal.

“She may have a tough time” getting a majority to help an $85.5 million tax improve, mentioned Wrigleyville Ald. Tom Tunney, forty fourth. “This was to be the yr of the simple price range vote.”

Lightfoot’s administration was noncommittal when requested just lately whether or not the mayor plans to take the complete $85.5 million along with her reelection bid looming.

“The Metropolis’s 2023 price range course of has simply begun,” a spokeswoman mentioned in a press release. “We might be working over the subsequent a number of months on the Price range Forecast which then results in the event of the 2023 Price range. We’ll proceed to make sure that we will present important Metropolis providers to our residents and successfully handle precedence areas. As with each price range, Mayor Lightfoot works to steadiness the wants of our group with the monetary stability of the Metropolis.”

The mayor’s political calculus additionally will undoubtedly keep in mind whether or not she needs to defend that hike whereas residents are struggling and one in all Lightfoot’s presumed opponents in February, mayoral candidate and businessman Willie Wilson, is freely giving thousands and thousands of {dollars} in free gasoline to drivers across the metropolis in an attention-grabbing transfer to assist a number of individuals fill their tanks.

Lightfoot’s transfer to tie taxes to the annual change within the nationwide client worth index got here at an inopportune time.

Beginning in December 2003, the largest December-to-December improve in that inflation index quantity previous to the newest one was 4.1% in December 2007, based on the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In 14 of the 18 years previous to 2021, inflation went up lower than 3% December to December.

Lightfoot included a clause in her 2021 price range tying annual property tax bumps to the rise or lower within the CPI between prior Decembers. The 2022 price range was the primary one through which it took impact routinely.

It’s onerous to say how a lot the 2023 property tax improve would value owners and different property house owners till annual property assessments are accomplished and the taxes on new properties are added to the tax rolls.

The town says this yr’s $22.9 million improve — primarily based on inflation rising 1.4% between December 2019 and December 2020 — value the proprietor of a $250,000 dwelling about $18 extra per yr. These will increase carry over yearly and into the long run. Lightfoot additionally raised property taxes one other $25 million this yr to assist fund her capital spending plan, and assessed a further $28.6 million in property taxes on new properties.

The potential $85.5 million improve in 2023 represents a 5% improve to the town’s $1.71 billion 2022 property tax levy. Whereas inflation went up 7% from December 2020 to December 2021, Lightfoot’s 5% ceiling rule on the annual tax retains it from going even larger.

jebyrne@chicagotribune.com

Twitter @_johnbyrne

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